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Toyota's Profit Drop Signals Significant Slowdown as Demand Cools After Big Run

Toyota's profit drop marks its first decline in two years, reflecting cooling demand and shifting consumer preferences. The automaker expects a 14% decline in operating profit amid intense market competition.

TOKYO (Reuters) - Toyota's profit drop is expected when the automaker reports its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday, signaling a significant cooling demand after a run of robust earnings helped by a consumer shift away from electric vehicles.

Toyota's Profit Drop Amid Changing Consumer Preferences

Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest automaker, has enjoyed a strong financial performance in recent years, bolstered by demand for its hybrid vehicles. However, the anticipated decline in profits highlights a shift in consumer behavior and a response to changing economic conditions. Despite facing Toyota's profit drop, the company is projected to deliver almost $8 billion in quarterly operating profit, benefiting as drivers in several major markets opt instead for petrol-battery hybrids, which typically command higher profit margins than standard petrol cars.

Sales and Production Figures Indicate Toyota's Profit Drop

Recent sales and production figures have indicated a modest slowdown for Toyota. The automaker faced a delivery suspension of two models in the United States and, like global rivals, is grappling with fierce competition in China, the world's largest auto market, where demand for EVs remains robust. This competitive landscape poses challenges for Toyota, which has historically been slower to embrace fully electric vehicles compared to its rivals.

Forecast for Toyota's Profit Drop in Q2 Earnings

Toyota's profit drop is projected at a 14% year-on-year decline in operating profit for July-September, amounting to 1.2 trillion yen ($7.9 billion), according to the average of nine analyst estimates in an LSEG poll. This decline would mark Toyota's first profit decrease since the same quarter in 2022, reflecting the changing dynamics of the automotive market.

The company has already reported that quarterly global sales shrank 4% from a year earlier and that output declined 7%. Such figures underscore the impact of elevated inflation and interest rates on consumer spending, leading many potential car buyers to reconsider their purchasing decisions.

Strategic Adaptations to Mitigate Toyota's Profit Drop

Toyota's strategy to expand its hybrid lineup in the U.S. might make it less exposed to any reduction in EV subsidies or similar potential policy changes in Washington, depending on the outcome of this week's U.S. presidential election. Hybrids accounted for 41% of Toyota's global sales in July-September, or 1.1 million vehicles, including the luxury Lexus brand, compared to 33% in the same period last year, according to company data.

Despite Toyota's profit drop, the automaker remains committed to innovation and sustainability. Among legacy automakers, Toyota is widely considered one of the slowest to embrace EVs, with battery-only electric vehicles accounting for just 1.5% of its global sales in the first nine months of the year. However, Toyota is working to enhance its electric vehicle offerings and aims to release new models in the coming years.

Industry Perspectives on Toyota's Profit Drop

Toyota Chairman Akio Toyoda argued last month that an EV-only future could lead to job losses across the auto industry. This perspective reflects the delicate balance between advancing technology and maintaining employment levels within the sector. Toyota's approach emphasizes a diversified strategy that includes hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell technologies, positioning the company to adapt to various market conditions.

Future Outlook Following Toyota's Profit Drop

Despite Toyota's profit drop, the company has kept its full-year profit estimate unchanged when it reported earnings for the April-June quarter, forecasting a 20% decline compared to the previous financial year on expected investments in both its strategy and suppliers.

The company continues to invest significantly in research and development to enhance its technological capabilities and maintain its competitive edge. Shares of Toyota are up 3% so far this year. In U.S. dollar terms, they are up 2%, compared to a 2% drop in EV rival Tesla over the same period.

As the automotive industry navigates these turbulent waters, Toyota's ability to adapt to changing consumer preferences and market dynamics will be critical. The company's focus on hybrids and gradual transition to electric vehicles could help it weather the challenges ahead while maintaining its leadership position in the global automotive market.